However, in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4. For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved or ignoring ties then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll including ties.
Let's call x the expected number of rolls per shooter. Likewise If the player rolls a 5 or 9 on the come out roll the expected number of additional rolls is 3. The probability that player will not seven out is 1 - 0. As I argue in my sports betting section betting NFL underdogs at home against the point spread also has resulted in a historical advantage. So x odds in craps is still one of the best bets out there, but not the very best.
Yes, 0. I agree that this is a very bad decision and poor advice from the dealers. Taking "no action" is the same as trading it for a bet with a 1. So this decision costs the player To any dealers encouraging this I say shame on you.
The fewer the sevens the greater the odds favor the pass line bet. The following table shows the house edge according to the percentage of sevens, assuming the probability of all other numbers is proportional to the fair probability. I get a lot of questions about combinations of craps bets. Your mistake is that both bets are not resolved all of the time. When you win either the 6 or 8 you are taking the other bet down, which brings down the expected loss because you are betting less.
So your math is right but you are comparing apples to oranges. There are various ways of using cards in place of dice and still have the odds exactly the same. One way is to use two separate decks, thus there is no effect of removal. Another way is to have a 7-card deck, featuring the numbers 1 to 6, plus a seventh "double" card. The first card drawn can never be the double card.
If it is then it is put back in and the process repeats from the beginning. If the double card is drawn second then it counts as whatever the first number drawn was. Regardless of how the casino does it I have never seen hard evidence of a case where the odds were different than if two dice were used. So I think you are omitting something from the rules. They sought out my advice on how to best achieve this goal quickly.
I was limited to the games at the Golden Nugget. The Nugget has 10x odds in craps, which I felt offered the opportunity to achieve the goal. Then a point was rolled, I think a 6 or 8.
On the second roll the shooter sevened out. So the entire grand was lost in two rolls. To answer the first question, I think that for purposes of going for a quick big win the pass line is better.
To answer the second question, there is not much difference between 9x odds and 10x odds and I thought it would look better on television to be betting only black chips, at least to start. As my blackjack section shows, the 2 to 1 on blackjacks is worth 2. Otherwise the rules look standard. All things considered, the house edge in the blackjack game has a player advantage of 2. Every time this happens you get an extra unit, so it is worth 5.
Normally the house edge on the come bet is 1. So I agree that craps was the better game to play. The following table shows the house edge of place and buy bets, assuming there were no rounding of winnings. Win House Edge Place 2, 12 11 to 2 0. That is very tight to limit the dealers like that. We can see from my analysis of the Fire Bet that the probability of a shooter making all six points is 0.
The next question to be asked is what is the expected loss per shooter. The tricky part is how many pass line bets will a shooter make, on average.
There are four possible states the shooter can be in. Let's define each one as the expected number of future pass line bets for that shooter. Finally, the expected return is the expected win divided by the expected bet: 0. So the house edge is However you have to compare that to the probability of rolling a losing combination. The hard six pays more because the probability of winning is less.
Crapless Craps offers those two bets too. Same probability is the same for the In this case fair odds would be 6 to 1. In Crapless Craps the place bet on the 2 and 12 pays 11 to 2.
Using this formula, the house edge on the 2 and 12 is In Crapless Craps the 3 and 11 pay 11 to 4. This question was raised and discussed in the forum of my companion site Wizard of Vegas. Sevening out. Repeating a point already made 4 to 9. Rolling a 10 on the come out roll, and then making it. We need to quantify the second and third probabilities only. The shooter will eventually make a point, and then eventually make it or seven out. The probability that the point established and then made is 4 to 9 is:.
Let p be the probability of making a 10 point before sevening out. If the player makes any other point, he is right back to where he started from. So, the expected number of points per shooter is 0. This question was asked at TwoPlusTwo. The following solution is the same method as that of BruceZ, who deserves proper credit. It is a difficult answer, so pay attention. First, consider the expected number of rolls to obtain a total of two.
Next, consider the expected number of rolls to get both a two and three. We already know it will take 36 rolls, on average, to get the two. If the three is obtained while waiting for the two, then no additional rolls will be needed for the 3. However, if not, the dice will have to be rolled more to get the three.
Next, consider how many more rolls you will need for a four as well. By the time you roll the two and three, if you didn't get a four yet, then you will have to roll the dice 12 more times, on average, to get one. What is the probability of getting the four before achieving the two and three? First, let's review a common rule of probability for when A and B are not mutually exclusive:.
The probability of not getting the four along the way to the two and three is 1. Next, consider how many more rolls you will need for a five as well. What is the probability of getting the five before achieving the two, three, or four? The general rule is:. You are making what is known as a Pass Bet. As the table indicates, the probability of winning a Pass Bet is The casino sometimes called the house has a Hence, the casino has a 1.
Interestingly, it is possible for you to bet with the casino, and against the shooter. To do this, you put your money on the Don't Pass Line. However, if you place a Don't Pass Bet , and the shooter initially rolls a 12, the casino wins, but you don't.
You don't lose your bet, but you don't win anything. The probabilities associated with a Don't Pass bet are as follows:. Now, on the tie, nobody wins. So, let's ignore the tie situation. Simple subtraction shows that by barring the 12 total to the Don't Pass bettor, the casino maintains a 1. The casino has only a slight edge in craps.
Pinnacle close. Help Language English International. Embed code Affiliate embed. Copy this code to embed the article on your site: Copy embed code. Enter your affiliate tracking code:. Copy embed code. Quick link copied to clipboard. Copy this link. Craps odds and probabilities The best place to start in determining the odds involved in Craps is assessing the probability of getting any given number from a dice roll featuring two six-sided dice: Craps probability As you can see, the most likely dice roll is a seven, which will occur on six of the 36 possible combinations from the two dice.
Here is the probability of the point numbers being rolled before a seven: Craps point number probability Point number Probability of point number being rolled first Probability of seven being rolled first 4 Category: Casino BR Home.
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